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Thursday, September 18, 2008

As the Election Turns: Episode 3


And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America. But before we get to the most recent polls, let's take a look at Sarah Palin's approval/disapproval ratings--or as Daily Kos calls it "The Sarah Failan Crash" (click here to see a graph of Caribou Barbie's tumble). Since Sept. 11, her approval rating has fallen from 52% to 41% and her disapproval figure has gone from 35% to 46%. YIKES! I think I'd be a bit worried if I was a Republican--but I'm not--I'm a happy Democrat.

A CBS News/New York Times poll this week also spotlighted Palin’s favorable/unfavorable ratings. Her favorable rating was 40%, down 4 points from last week, while her unfavorable rating of 30%, rose 8 points in the same time period. And her favorable rating among women fell 11 points in the past week.

So the bloom seems to be off the Palin rose, thank God. And poor McCain, all the crowds are leaving at his rallies after his pretty hockey mom speaks. I guess those Republicans really don't care much about our country--they're just interested in seeing Palin in person. And yesterday even Palin herself talked about "a Palin and McCain administration." What??? If I was McCain, I'd be pissed off having to be on the bottom of my own presidential ticket.

But enough about those two, let's talk polls. When we last tuned in to As the Election Turns on September 11, here's where we were:

Obama won 15 states with 212 electoral votes: California (55 electoral votes), Connecticut (7), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4).

McCain won 17 states with 148 votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

No one won 10 states: Colorado (9), Florida (27), Indiana (11), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).

Now let's look at the latest polls:

National (Gallup/Sept. 19): Obama 49, McCain 44 (Obama +5, McCain -4 since Sept. 11 poll)
National (Rasmussen/Sept. 19): Obama 48, McCain 48 (no change from last week)
National (Quinnipiac/Sept. 18): Obama 49, McCain 45
National (CBS News/NY Times/Sept. 17): Obama 49, McCain 44 (Obama +5, McCain -2)

So the national polls have pretty much returned to the pre-convention numbers with Obama having a slight lead. The Palin bounce is over.

Now let's look at the state polls (I've included two July polls from Arkansas and Nebraska, which are the most recent ones for those states):

Alabama (SurveyUSA/Sept. 19): McCain 64, Obama 34 (McCain +9, Obama -1)
Alaska (Research 2000/Sept. 19): McCain 55, Obama 38 (McCain -9, Obama -5)
Arkansas (Rasmussen/July 17): McCain 52, Obama 39
Colorado (InAdv/PollPosition/Sept. 18): Obama 51, McCain 41 (Obama +4, McCain -5)
Connecticut (Rasmussen/Sept. 18): Obama 53, McCain 41 (Obama no change, McCain +1)
Delaware (Rasmussen/Sept. 14): Obama 55, McCain 43
District of Columbia (ARG/Sept. 13): Obama 82, McCain 13
Florida (CNN-Time/Sept. 17): Obama 48, McCain 48 (no change)
Georgia (InAdv/PollPosition/Sept. 18): McCain 51, Obama 43 (McCain -5, Obama +5)
Hawaii (ARG/Sept. 12): Obama 63, McCain 32
Idaho (Rasmussen/Sept. 11): McCain 68, Obama 29
Indiana (Indy Star/Selzer/Sept. 18): Obama 47, McCain 44 (Obama +4, McCain -1)
Iowa (SurveyUSA/Sept. 19): Obama 54, McCain 43 (Obama -1, McCain +3)
Kentucky (Research 2000/Sept. 19): McCain 55, Obama 37 (no change)
Michigan (Marist/Sept. 19): Obama 52, McCain 43 (Obama +3, McCain -2)
Minnesota (SurveyUSA/Sept. 14): Obama 49, McCain 47 (Obama -4, McCain +6)
Missouri (Rasmussen/Sept. 12): McCain 51, Obama 46 (McCain +1, Obama +1)
Nebraska (Rasmussen/July 28): McCain 55, Obama 36
Nevada (Rasmussen/Sept. 13): McCain 49, Obama 46
New Jersey (Rasmussen/Sept. 18): Obama 55, McCain 42 (Obama +8, McCain +1)
New Mexico (SurveyUSA/Sept. 18): Obama 52, McCain 44 (Obama +5, McCain -5)
New York (Rasmussen/Sept. 16): Obama 55, McCain 42 (Obama no change, McCain +6)
North Carolina (CNN-Time/Sept. 17): McCain 48, Obama 47 (McCain no change, Obama +3)
Ohio (CNN-Time/Sept. 17): Obama 49, McCain 47 (Obama no change, McCain +3)
Oklahoma (Rasmussen/Sept. 12): McCain 63, Obama 32 (McCain -2, Obama no change)
Oregon (Portland Tribune/Sept. 18): Obama 50, McCain 40 (Obama -2, McCain -2)
Pennsylvania (Marist/Sept. 19): Obama 49, McCain 44 (Obama +2, McCain -1)
Rhode Island (Rasmussen/Sept. 17): Obama 58, McCain 39
South Carolina (ARG/Sept. 17): McCain 59, Obama 37
South Dakota (Rasmussen/Sept. 13): McCain 54, Obama 37
Utah (Rasmussen/Sept. 15): McCain 64, Obama 32
Vermont (Rasmussen/Sept. 18): Obama 60, McCain 36
Virginia (InAdv/PollPosition/Sept. 18): McCain 48, Obama 46 (McCain -2, Obama no change)
Washington (Rasmussen/Sept. 12): Obama 49, McCain 47 (Obama no change, McCain +2)
Wisconsin (Rasmussen/Sept. 17): Obama 48, McCain 46 (Obama +2, McCain +3)

States where Obama has a big FABULOUS lead (10+ points): 15 (including Illinois, Maine, Maryland and Massachusetts)

States where McCain has a big DEPRESSING lead (10+ points): 18 (including Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee, Texas and Wyoming)

States where Obama has a comfortable lead (5-9): 5 (including California and New Hampshire)

States where McCain has a comfortable lead (5-9): 4 (including Arizona and West Virginia)

States where Obama and McCain are essentially tied (4 or less): 9

So in Round 3 of our battle for the White House, Obama wins 19 states and DC (Bold states 10+ lead): California (55 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4) and Vermont (3).

McCain wins 22 states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

No one wins 9 states: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).

This week's winner is Obama with 242 electoral votes to McCain's 174 votes (with 122 undecided votes). Obama lost Minnesota, Nevada and Ohio, which are now tied in the polls, but he regained New Mexico and Pennsylvania as well as adding Colorado and Michigan. McCain didn't lose any states--but he didn't gain any from the undecided list. So it looks like Obama/Biden have had an excellent week while McCain/Palin have not. It's going to be a tough battle for those remaining 122 electoral votes, but as of today, Obama only needs 28 of those votes to reach the magic number of 270. I think he can do it.

And, last but certainly not least, a few words from the fabulous Margaret Cho:

"I am not voting for McCain. I hope that is obvious. I am sick of everyone saying – 'He was a good soldier. He was a good soldier.' Um yeah. He was captured. So he was not that good."

And on that note, be sure to tune in next week for another dramatic episode of As the Election Turns.

4 comments:

Damon L. Jacobs said...

Thank you so much D.D. for rounding up all this info. It looks like as Wall Street drops, Obama's stock goes up. Works for me!!

Deep Dish said...

It works for me, too. And it makes both candidates talk about something a bit more important than lipstick on a pig.

kap said...

After the last election, I can't rest easy until it's over. Maybe none of us should. Thanks for gathering and posting data.

Deep Dish said...

I agree. I'm not going to rest easy until after Nov. 4--but I am hopeful after this week.