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Thursday, September 25, 2008

As the Election Turns: Episode 4



And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America. It's been an interesting week so far. Palin's witch hunting preacher problem only got worse (click here to read more), her interview with Katie Couric only confirmed how far in over her head she is (click here to see a video clip)--I don't understand how anyone could vote for this woman unless all you care about is the pro-life issue--and McCain pissed off David Letterman and lied to the American public that he was suspending his campaign in order to resolve the economic crisis (he hasn't suspended a damn thing; his TV ads are running today, and his surrogates are attacking Obama while he fails to convince us all that he's putting the country first rather than his increasingly pathetic campaign). And the debate will go on tomorrow night--with or without him. Obama plans to host a public, televised townhall meeting and/or a one-on-one interview with NewsHour's Jim Lehrer if McCain doesn't show up. Will John-Boy allow his rival to go it alone and reach millions of television viewers with his own message? Or will he suddenly realize that a person is able to do more than one thing at a time and get his butt on a plane to Mississippi? Tune in tomorrow for the answers to those burning questions.

And what do the rest of us average folks think about the debate? A current CNN poll reports that 58% think the two candidates should debate, 21% think they should debate on the topic of the economy, and only 21% think they should work on the bailout. An MSNBC poll on the debate has over 80% disagreeing that the event should be postponed and less than 20% agreeing. Hey, John, I don't think you've got America on your side on this particular issue.

And on that note, let's turn our attention to the polls. When we last tuned in to As the Election Turns on September 19, here's where we were:

Obama won 19 states and DC with 242 electoral votes (Bold states 10+ lead): California (55 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4) and Vermont (3).

McCain won 22 states with 174 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

No one won 9 states with 122 electoral votes: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).

Here are the latest national polls:

National (Gallup/Sept. 25): Obama 46, McCain 46 (Obama -3, McCain +2 since Sept. 19 poll)
National (Rasmussen/Sept. 25): Obama 49, McCain 46 (Obama +1, McCain -2)
National (NBC News-Wall St. Jrnl/Sept. 24): Obama 48, McCain 46 (Obama +2, McCain +1)
National (ABC News-Wash Post/Sept. 24): Obama 52, McCain 43 (Obama +5, McCain -6)

Obama still has a slight lead, except in the latest Gallup--but look at that ABC News/Washington Post one. Wow, a 9 point lead. Is it just a temporary bump? I look forward to their next poll.

Now let's look at the state polls:

Alabama (Rasmussen/Sept. 24): McCain 60, Obama 39 (McCain -4, Obama +5)
California (Rasmussen/Sept. 23): Obama 56, McCain 39 (Obama +8, McCain no change since Aug. 28)
Colorado (InAdv/PollPosition/Sept. 24): Obama 50, McCain 41 (Obama -1, McCain no change)
Delaware (SurveyUSA/Sept. 25): Obama 57, McCain 37 (Obama +2, McCain -6)
Florida (NBC-Mason-Dixon/Sept. 23): Obama 47, McCain 45 (Obama -1, McCain -3)
Hawaii (Rasmussen/Sept. 23): Obama 68, McCain 27 (Obama +5, McCain -5)
Illinois (Rasmussen/Sept. 20): Obama 56, McCain 40 (Obama +1, McCain no change since Aug. 18)
Iowa (Marist/Sept. 24): Obama 51, McCain 41 (Obama -3, McCain -2)
Kansas (SurveyUSA/Sept. 24): McCain 53, Obama 41 (McCain -5, Obama +6 since Aug. 22)
Kentucky (SurveyUSA/Sept. 23): McCain 57, Obama 38 (McCain +2, Obama +1)
Maine (SurveyUSA/Sept. 25): Obama 49, McCain 44 (Obama -4, McCain +5 since Aug. 15 poll)
Maryland (Rasmussen/Sept. 24): Obama 60, McCain 37 (Obama +8, McCain -1)
Massachusetts (SurveyUSA/Sept. 25): Obama 55, McCain 39 (Obama +1, McCain +1 since Aug. 7 poll)
Michigan (Detroit Free Press/Sept. 25): Obama 51, McCain 38 (Obama -1, McCain -5)
Minnesota (Rasmussen/Sept. 22): Obama 52, McCain 44 (Obama +3, McCain -3)
Missouri (Research 2000/Sept. 20): McCain 49, Obama 45 (McCain -2, Obama -1)
Montana (CNN-Time/Sept. 24): McCain 54, Obama 43 (McCain +1, Obama +1)
Nevada (Suffolk University/Sept. 22): McCain 46, Obama 45 (McCain -3, Obama -1)
New Hampshire (Marist/Sept. 24): Obama 51, McCain 45 (no change)
New Mexico (PPP/Sept. 22): Obama 53, McCain 42 (Obama +1, McCain -2)
North Carolina (Rasmussen/Sept. 25): Obama 49, McCain 47 (Obama +2, McCain -1)
North Dakota (Research 2000/Sept. 20): McCain 53, Obama 40 (McCain -2, Obama -1)
Ohio (Rasmussen/Sept. 25): McCain 47, Obama 46 (McCain no change, Obama -3)
Oregon (SurveyUSA/Sept. 25): Obama 52, McCain 41 (Obama +2, McCain +1)
Pennsylvania (CNN-Time/Sept. 24): Obama 53, McCain 44 (Obama +4, McCain no change)
South Carolina (SurveyUSA/Sept. 24): McCain 58, Obama 39 (McCain -1, Obama +2)
Virginia (ABC News-Wash Post/Sept. 22): Obama 49, McCain 46 (Obama +3, McCain -2)
Washington (SurveyUSA/Sept. 24): Obama 54, McCain 43 (Obama +5, McCain -4)
West Virginia (CNN-Time/Sept. 24): McCain 50, Obama 46 (McCain +6, Obama +7)
Wisconsin (Research 2000/Sept. 25): Obama 49, McCain 43 (Obama +1, McCain -3)

States where Obama has a big FABULOUS lead (10+ points): 17 (including Connecticut, District of Columbia, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island and Vermont)

States where McCain has a big DEPRESSING lead (10+ points): 18 (including Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming)

States where Obama has a comfortable lead (5-9): 6

States where McCain has a comfortable lead (5-9): 2 (including Arizona and Georgia)

States where Obama and McCain are essentially tied (4 or less): 8 (including Indiana)

So in Round 4 of our battle for the White House, Obama wins 22 states and DC (Bold states 10+ lead): California (55 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).

McCain wins 20 states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5) and Wyoming (3).

No one wins 8 states: Florida (27), Indiana (11), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) and West Virginia (5)

This week's winner is Obama with 273 electoral votes to McCain's 158 votes (with 107 undecided votes). Too bad the election isn't being held today because Obama would win. He picked up three states that were basically tied last week: Washington (where he now has an 11-point lead), Minnesota (8-point lead) and Wisconsin (6-point lead), while McCain lost two states, Missouri and West Virginia, which are now too close to call. So even without Florida and Ohio (which are still in play), Obama is able to get to the magic number of 270.


Before I sign off, a few fun things to mention:

For more clever, McCain/Palin yardsigns,click here. The "Time Out" one is in reference to the governor's experience as a point guard on the Wasilla High School girl's state championship basketball team. And she can see Russia from her house--what more can you want in a Vice President?

If you want to give someone an Obampliment like the one above, click here.

And, last but certainly not least, if you haven't yet received your official Sarah Palin Baby Name (mine is Lock Pepper Palin), click here.

Too much fun, folks, too much fun. Be sure to tune in on Saturday for a Very Special Debate Recap episode of As the Election Turns--with or without McCain.

2 comments:

Damon L. Jacobs said...

I can't say thank you enough for putting together all this data and having it make sense for the rest of us. You rock, D.D. !!

Deep Dish said...

Thanks, Damon! It's fun to put all the information together.