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Thursday, October 16, 2008

As the Election Turns: Joe the Plumber's 15 Minutes Are Up


And now another episode of As the Election Turns, the continuing drama of politics in America. So the final debate is over, and Obama is the winner once again:

CBS (undecided voters): Obama 53%, McCain 22%
CNN: Obama 58%, McCain 31%
MSNBC: Obama 81%, McCain 15%
FOX News: Obama 84%, McCain 16% (587,322 voters--amazing)

McCain came off more than ever as a smug petulant child, while Obama remained his usual calm, cool and collected self. And now we have yet another instant celebrity in Joe the Plumber, who turns out not to be licensed as a plumber in Ohio. Here are a few other interesting tidbits that we've learned about good ol' Joe and the plumbing business since he first burst onto the national scene:

He's NOT an undecided voter. He's a registered Republican--and a lazy one, too, since he first registered way back in 1992 and didn't cast a vote until this year's primary.

He's a tax dodger, owing money for his personal property taxes.

He's apparently related to Charles Keating's son-in-law--from the Keating 5--the scandal McCain was embroiled in years ago.

He made $40,000 in 2006, which would make him a prime candidate for an Obama tax cut.

The annual salary of a plumber in 2007 was $47,350, which is nowhere near $250,000.

The amazing plumbing business that rakes in over 250K per year that Joe wants to buy doesn't seem to have an office or a building.

Joe eloquently compared Obama to that tap dancing Sammy Davis, Jr. (I would take this as a compliment since Sammy was one cool dude).

And, finally, the United Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters has already endorsed Obama for President.

Seems to me that John McCain has picked another great person to latch onto without properly vetting him. And I agree with one of my Facebook friends, who wrote on my page today: "McCain loves a plumber because he has eight houses." Yup, that's a lot of pipes there to unclog.

That's enough about Joe, whose 15 minutes of fame have officially expired. Let's now turn our attention to the latest polls. When we last tuned in to As the Election Turns on October 12, here's where we were:

Obama won 26 states and DC with 338 electoral votes: California (55 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11), West Virginia (5) and Wisconsin (10).

McCain won 20 states with 154 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), >South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5) and Wyoming (3).

No one won 4 states with 46 electoral votes: Georgia (15), Missouri (11), Nevada (5) and North Carolina (15).

Here are the latest national polls:

National (Gallup/Oct. 16): Obama 49, McCain 47 (Obama -1, McCain +4)
National (Rasmussen/Oct. 16): Obama 50, McCain 46 (Obama -1, McCain +1)
National (LA Times-Bloomberg/Oct. 14): Obama 50, McCain 41
National (CBS News-NY Times/Oct. 14): Obama 53, McCain 39 (Obama +5, McCain -6)
National (ABC News-Wash Post/Oct. 13): Obama 53, McCain 43

Today's polls reflect a much tighter race, but when you look at the CBS poll (up by 14 points) and the ABC poll (up by 10 points), you gotta wonder who exactly Gallup and Rasmussen are polling as opposed to CBS and ABC. I'm not that concerned about the national polls, since the outcome of this election will depend on the individual states. So let's look at the most recent state polls:

Colorado (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP/Oct. 14): Obama 52, McCain 43 (Obama no change, McCain +1)
Delaware (Rasmussen/Oct. 15): Obama 56, McCain 41 (Obama no change, McCain +3)
Florida (CNN-Time/Oct. 15): Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama +2, McCain +2)
Georgia (CNN-Time/Oct. 15): McCain 53, Obama 45 (McCain +4, Obama -1)
Illinois (Rasmussen/Oct. 15): Obama 56, McCain 39 (Obama no change, McCain -1)
Kansas (Rasmussen/Oct. 15): McCain 54, Obama 41 (McCain +1, Obama no change)
Massachusetts (Rasmussen/Oct. 15): Obama 62, McCain 34 (Obama +7, McCain -5)
Michigan (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP/Oct. 14): Obama 54, McCain 38 (Obama -2, McCain -2)
Minnesota (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP/Oct. 14): Obama 51, McCain 40 (Obama -1, McCain -5)
Missouri (FOX News-Rasmussen/Oct. 13): Obama 50, McCain 47 (no change)
Nevada (InAdv-PollPosition/Oct. 15): Obama 49, McCain 46 (Obama no change, McCain -1)
New Jersey (SurveyUSA/Oct. 13): Obama 55, McCain 40 (Obama +5, McCain -2)
New Mexico (Rasmussen/Oct. 15): Obama 55, McCain 42 (Obama +3, McCain -2)
New York (SurveyUSA/Oct. 13): Obama 64, McCain 31 (Obama +7, McCain -7)
North Carolina (PPP/Oct. 14): Obama 49, McCain 46 (Obama no change, McCain -2)
North Dakota (Forum Poll-MSUM/Oct. 13): Obama 45, McCain 43 (Obama +5, McCain -10 since Sept. 20)
Ohio (SurveyUSA/Oct. 14): Obama 50, McCain 45 (Obama +1, McCain +1)
Oregon (SurveyUSA/Oct. 13): Obama 57, McCain 40 (Obama +3, McCain -3)
Pennsylvania (SurveyUSA/Oct. 14): Obama 55, McCain 40 (Obama +1, McCain -1)
South Carolina (SurveyUSA/Oct. 15): McCain 55, Obama 41 (McCain -3, Obama +2)
Virginia (CNN-Time/Oct. 15): Obama 53, McCain 43 (Obama +2, McCain no change)
Washington (SurveyUSA/Oct. 15): Obama 56, McCain 40 (Obama +3, McCain -3)
West Virginia (InAdv-PollPosition/Oct. 15): McCain 49, Obama 47 (McCain +7, Obama -3)
Wisconsin (Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP/Oct. 14): Obama 54, McCain 37 (Obama +3, McCain -4)

States where Obama has a big FABULOUS lead (10+ points): 21

States where McCain has a big DEPRESSING lead (10+ points): 15

States where Obama has a comfortable lead (5-9): 5

States where McCain has a comfortable lead (5-9): 5

States where Obama and McCain are essentially tied (4 or less): 5

So this week Obama wins 25 states and DC (Bold states 10+ lead): California (55 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10)

McCain wins 20 states: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5) and Wyoming (3)

No one wins 5 states: Missouri (11), Nevada (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3) and West Virginia (5)

This week's winner is Obama with 333 electoral votes to McCain's 166 votes (with 39 undecided votes). Obama lost West Virginia (which is basically tied again), while McCain lost North Dakota, which surprisingly has become an unexpected battleground state--at least for the moment. However, McCain did put Georgia back in his column, but he still has an extremely steep hill to climb in order to overtake Obama's comfortable lead. And it doesn't help when most folks view you as an unlikeable person. Here's another CNN poll from last night on who was more likeable (the respondents were 40% Democrats, 30% Republicans, 30% other):

Obama 70%, McCain 22%

Poor John. Even some Republicans don't care much for him. Let's hope this trend continues for a few more weeks. That's all for this edition of As the Election Turns.

4 comments:

Tom Goss said...

Wow, very in depth and easily laid out. Thanks!

Tom

Deep Dish said...

Thanks for checking out my blog, Tom! I'm glad you liked my political musings.

Damon L. Jacobs said...

You are such an angel for posting all this, D.D. !! Thank you again !!

Deep Dish said...

You're very welcome, sir.