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Monday, November 3, 2008

As the Election Turns: Predicting the Future


Well, the big day is almost here. Finally. I'm sure most of you are feeling like me--ready for this baby to be over. It's been fun and interesting to follow this election season, but I will not miss it. I'm ready for a new President and Vice-President, and hopefully tomorrow America will elect Barack Obama and Joe Biden to the White House.

Before I continue, I just want to say my thoughts and prayers are with Obama and his family over the loss of his 86-year-old grandmother, Toot, who passed away today from cancer. It's a real shame that she didn't live to see her grandson win, but I know she will be looking down on him tomorrow night and smiling.

Now let's turn our attention to the latest national polls:

National (Marist/Nov. 3): Obama 53, McCain 44
National (FOX News/Nov. 3): Obama 50, McCain 43 (Obama +3, McCain +1 from last week)
National (NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl/Nov. 3): Obama 51, McCain 43
National (Rasmussen/Nov. 3): Obama 52, McCain 46 (Obama +1, McCain +1)
National (Gallup/Nov. 3): Obama 55, McCain 44 (Obama +4, McCain +1)
National (CBS News/Nov. 3): Obama 51, McCain 42 (Obama -1, McCain +1)
National (CNN/Opinion Research/Nov. 2): Obama 53, McCain 46
National (Pew Research/Nov. 2): Obama 52, McCain 46 (Obama -1, McCain +8)
National (ABC News/Wash Post/Nov. 2): Obama 54, McCain 43 (Obama +2, McCain -1)

Nationally Obama is looking very good with substantial leads over McCain in most polls--except for the rather weird Pew Research, which has McCain gaining 8 points since Oct. 28. I just find that really bizarre--but at least Obama is still leading in the poll by 6 points. So judging by these figures, I'm predicting Obama wins the popular vote 53% to McCain's 47%--and I'm being extremely generous to McCain since no current poll has him above 46%.

Now let's look at the most recent polls for each state--with my prediction of the winner:

Alabama (9 Electoral Votes)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 29): McCain 61, Obama 36
Winner: McCain

Alaska (3)
(Rasmussen/Oct. 29): McCain 57, Obama 41
Winner: McCain

Arizona (10)
(NBC/Mason-Dixon/Oct. 30): McCain 48, Obama 44
Winner: McCain

Arkansas (6)
(Rasmussen/Oct. 28): McCain 54, Obama 44
Winner: McCain

California (55)
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 1): Obama 60, McCain 36
Winner: Obama

Colorado (9)
(FOX News/Rasmussen/Nov. 3): Obama 51, McCain 47
(Denver Post/Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): Obama 49, McCain 44
Winner: Obama

Connecticut (7)
(Hartford Courant/Oct. 27): Obama 56, McCain 31
Winner: Obama

Delaware (3)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 29): Obama 63, McCain 33
Winner: Obama

District of Columbia (3)
(ARG/Sept. 13): Obama 82, McCain 13
Winner: Obama

Florida (27)
(FOX News/Rasmussen/Nov. 3): Obama 49, McCain 50
(PPP/Nov. 3): Obama 50, McCain 48
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): Obama 48, McCain 46
(Quinnipiac/Nov. 3): Obama 47, McCain 45
(Mason-Dixon/Nov. 1): Obama 49, McCain 47
Winner: Obama

Georgia (15)
(PPP/Nov. 3): McCain 50, Obama 48
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 3): McCain 52, Obama 45
Winner: McCain

Hawaii (4)
(Rasmussen/Sept. 23): Obama 68, McCain 27
Winner: Obama

Idaho (4)
(Rasmussen/Sept. 11): McCain 68, Obama 29
Winner: McCain

Illinois (21)
(Rasmussen/Nov. 2): Obama 60, McCain 38
Winner: Obama

Indiana (11)
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): McCain 49, Obama 44
(ARG/Nov. 1): McCain 48, Obama 48
Winner: McCain

Iowa (7)
(Des Moines Register/Nov. 3): Obama 54, McCain 37
(Research 2000/Nov. 1): Obama 53, McCain 39
Winner: Obama

Kansas (6)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 29): McCain 58, Obama 37
Winner: McCain

Kentucky (8)
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 2): McCain 56, Obama 40
(Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): McCain 51, Obama 42
Winner: McCain

Louisiana (9)
(SE Louisiana/Oct. 28): McCain 51, Obama 38
Winner: McCain

Maine (4)
(Rasmussen/Nov. 2): Obama 56, McCain 43
Winner: Obama

Maryland (10)
(Rasmussen/Sept. 24): Obama 60, McCain 37
Winner: Obama

Massachusetts (12)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 29): Obama 56, McCain 39
Winner: Obama

Michigan (17)
(Detroit Free Press/Nov. 2): Obama 53, McCain 37
(Mitchell Research/Nov. 1): Obama 54, McCain 40
Winner: Obama

Minnesota (10)
(Star Tribune/Nov. 2): Obama 53, McCain 42
Winner: Obama

Mississippi (6)
(Rasmussen/Oct. 28): McCain 53, Obama 45
Winner: McCain

Missouri (11)
(FOX News/Rasmussen/Nov. 3): McCain 49, Obama 49
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 3): McCain 48, Obama 48
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): McCain 46, Obama 47
(Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): McCain 47, Obama 46
Winner: Obama

Montana (3)
(PPP/Nov. 3): McCain 47, Obama 48
(Rasmussen/Oct. 30): McCain 50, Obama 46
Winner: McCain

Nebraska (5)
(Rasmussen/Oct. 2): McCain 56, Obama 37
Winner: McCain

Nevada (5)
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): Obama 51, McCain 43
(LVRJ/Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): Obama 47, McCain 43
Winner: Obama

New Hampshire (4)
(WMUR/UNH/Nov. 2): Obama 53, McCain 42
Winner: Obama

New Jersey (15)
(Rasmussen/Nov. 3): Obama 57, McCain 42
(Monmouth/Gannett/Nov. 1): Obama 55, McCain 34
Winner: Obama

New Mexico (5)
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 1): Obama 52, McCain 45
Winner: Obama

New York (31)
(Marist/Oct. 25): Obama 65, McCain 29
Winner: Obama

North Carolina (15)
(FOX News/Rasmussen/Nov. 3): McCain 50, Obama 49
(PPP/Nov. 3): McCain 49, Obama 50
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 3): McCain 49, Obama 48
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): McCain 49, Obama 48
(Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): McCain 49, Obama 46
Winner: McCain

North Dakota (3)
(Research 2000/Oct. 17): Obama 45, McCain 45
Winner: McCain

Ohio (20)
(FOX News/Rasmussen/Nov. 3): Obama 49, McCain 49
(PPP/Nov. 3): Obama 50, McCain 48
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 3): Obama 48, McCain 46
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): Obama 50, McCain 44
(Univ of Cinci/Ohio Poll/Nov. 3): Obama 52, McCain 46
(Quinnipiac/Nov. 3): Obama 50, McCain 43
(Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): Obama 45, McCain 47
(Columbus Dispatch/Nov. 2): Obama 52, McCain 46
Winner: Obama

Oklahoma (7)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 21): McCain 59, Obama 35
Winner: McCain

Oregon (7)
(Rasmussen/Nov. 1): Obama 54, McCain 42
Winner: Obama

Pennsylvania (21)
(PPP/Nov. 3): Obama 53, McCain 45
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): Obama 54, McCain 40
(Quinnipiac/Nov. 3): Obama 52, McCain 42
(Rasmussen/Nov. 2): Obama 52, McCain 46
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 2): Obama 51, McCain 44
Winner: Obama

Rhode Island (4)
(Rasmussen/Sept. 17): Obama 58, McCain 39
Winner: Obama

South Carolina (8)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 30): McCain 52, Obama 44
Winner: McCain

South Dakota (3)
(Rasmussen/Nov. 1): McCain 53, Obama 44
Winner: McCain

Tennessee (11)
(Research 2000/Oct. 26): McCain 54, Obama 38
Winner: McCain

Texas (34)
(University of Texas/Oct. 29): McCain 51, Obama 40
Winner: McCain

Utah (5)
(Mason-Dixon/Oct. 29): McCain 55, Obama 32
Winner: McCain

Vermont (3)
(Research 2000/Oct. 27): Obama 57, McCain 36
Winner: Obama

Virginia (13)
(FOX News/Rasmussen/Nov. 3): Obama 51, McCain 47
(Reuters/Zogby/Nov. 3): Obama 51, McCain 45
(PPP/Nov. 2): Obama 52, McCain 46
(SurveyUSA/Nov. 2): Obama 50, McCain 46
(Mason-Dixon/Nov. 2): Obama 47, McCain 44
Winner: Obama

Washington (11)
(The Washington Poll/Nov. 1): Obama 51, McCain 39
Winner: Obama

West Virginia (5)
(PPP/Oct. 31): McCain 55, Obama 42
Winner: McCain

Wisconsin (10)
(U. of WI/Nov. 1): Obama 52, McCain 42
Winner: Obama

Wyoming (3)
(SurveyUSA/Oct. 21): McCain 58, Obama 37
Winner: McCain

Obama will win 27 states and DC with 349 electoral votes: California (55 electoral votes), Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Florida (27), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Iowa (7), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10)

McCain will win 23 states with 189 electoral votes: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3)

Worst Case Scenario: McCain wins Florida, Ohio and Missouri, giving him 247 votes to Obama's 291. Those are the only three states I can possibly see going for McCain. However, there's a chance that Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota could all go for Obama. Almost anything is possible, but I don't see McCain winning Pennsylvania or Virginia.

And how are the various pundits predicting tomorrow night?

Karl Rove: Obama 338, McCain 200
George Will: Obama 378, McCain 160
Donna Brazile: Obama 343, McCain 195
George Stephanopoulos: Obama 353, McCain 185
Mark Halperin: Obama 349, McCain 189
Chris Matthews: Obama 338, McCain 200
Nate Silver: Obama 347, McCain 191
Chris Cillizza: Obama 312, McCain 226
Arianna Huffington: Obama 318, McCain 200
Ed Rollins: Obama 353, McCain 185
Paul Begala: Obama 325, McCain 213
James Carville: Obama 330, McCain 208
Charles Mahtesian (Politico): Obama 311, McCain 227
David Plotz (Slate): Obama 336, McCain 202
David Gergen: Obama 338, McCain 200
Hilary Rosen: Obama 333, McCain 205

So we'll see who comes closest to the final outcome. I'm probably going downtown to Grant Park tomorrow night for the big party (hopefully) here in Chicago, so I will let you know how that goes. And finally one last word:

VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2 comments:

MaxStone01 said...

I know Maryland is primarily a Democratic state, but I've been really surprised to see the number of McCain/Palin signage in yards and on businesses in my area. I hope the polls are right, but I still fear things could go horribly wrong such as they did four years ago! I pray they don't.

Deep Dish said...

Maybe you live in a more Republican area of the state--or of Baltimore. I think Maryland is firmly in Obama's pocket--but you, of course, still need to vote! :)